APRIL 2019 European Monthly Research Report: On-Line Retail Sales

SURFING THE ON-LINE WAVE IS NOT THE ONLY THING FOR LOGISTICS

  • On-line retail penetration rate in Europe averaged 6.4% in 2018 and is expected to increase to 8.8% by 2022. With the shift towards online retailing still showing potential growth, demand for logistics is set to remain solid across Europe.
  • On-line sales has driven demand for both XXL and big box warehouses as well as the increased need for mid-size units. This is due to the greater need for parcel delivery has shifted part of the demand closer to urban areas.
  • Our forecasts show no evident correlation so far between on-line sales growth and logistics rental growth. But with vacancy rates at their lowest across Europe, owners have more leverage to negotiate more favourable rents.
  • Logistics rental growth is clearly not just driven by the wave in on-line retail sales. Other factors such as the continued focus on cost optimization of the retail supply chain and the availability and cost of logistics space also play a role.
  • With occupier demand remaining solid, European industrial and logistics investment volume tripled in the last five years (2014-2018), compared to the previous five-year period (2009-2013).
  • With increased competition for existing assets, investors also view development as a value-add alternative. 

LOGISTICS RENTAL GROWTH DRIVEN BY MORE FACTORS THAN JUST ONLINE SALES GROWTH

Sources: AEW & Global Data 

Download PDF - English

Download PDF - Français

Download PDF - Deutsch

The information and opinions presented in this research piece have been prepared internally and/or obtained from sources which AEW believes to be reliable; however, AEW does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, or completeness of such information. 

Photo of Hans Vrensen

Hans Vrensen
Head of Research, Europe

Looking For More Research?

See All Research